Some of you know that I interned in Scottish parliament last year. Well just to let you know a bit more, I worked for the party that wants to separate from Scotland, the Scottish National Party. Elections are coming up soon and it looks as though the SNP will be able to form a coalition government. I think if they get in power, it will either be the best thing ever for them or the worse thing because I think people will really base any future voting decisions on how they perform in parliament this time around.
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“THERE are just 30 days to save devolution,” proclaimed Jack McConnell this week. Scotland's first minister was firing Labour's opening shots in the campaign leading up to elections for the Scottish Parliament on May 3rd. By awkward coincidence, these fall two days after the 300th anniversary of the formal union between Scotland and England. Mr McConnell has every right to sound alarmed.
Most recent opinion polls have given the Scottish National Party (SNP), which seeks independence from Britain, a hefty lead over Labour. Those who were squelched years ago for giving wa
rning that devolution was less a solution to separatist sentiment than a fast track to secession are laughing up their sleeves. Is the union, in fact, in peril, with Scotland the first of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom to walk free?
That risk is not, for all the sound and fury, imminent independence for Scotland, however. Relatively few Scots actually want it, for one thing. No more than 30% support independence, says John Curtice of Strathclyde University—roughly the same as at devolution in 1998 and notably less than the 36-39% who back the SNP.
And even that sturdy backing is unlikely to translate into enough votes to let the SNP run Scotland on its own. Mr Curtice reckons the roughly five-point lead over Labour that opinion polls give the Nationalists might yield them 45 regional and constituency seats (up from 27 now) to Labour's 40 (down from 50)—well short of the 65 seats needed for an outright majority. As the Liberal Democrats, the SNP's only possible coalition partners, are opposed even to holding a referendum on independence, the chances that the SNP will achieve its dearest wish remain remote.
